发布时间：2019-01-06 作者： 浏览次数：
日期/Date |
活动/activity |
地点/venue |
2019年1月9日15:00 |
讲座：A novel stochastic modelling approach for operational real-time ice-jam flood forecasting |
京师科技大厦1609 |
2019年1月10日 8:30-16:30 |
课程：Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam floods (Part 1) |
京师科技大厦1609 |
2019年1月11日 8:30-16:30 |
课程：Forecasting, managing and mitigating ice-jam floods (Part 2) |
京师科技大厦1609 |
Abstract of the seminar
Forecasting ice jams and their consequential flooding is more challenging than predicting open water flood conditions. This is due to the chaotic nature of ice jam formation since slight changes in water and ice flows, location of the ice jam toe along the river and initial water levels at the time of jam formation can lead to marked differences in the outcome of backwater level elevations and flood severity. In this paper, we introduce a novel, operational real-time flood forecasting system that captures this stochastic nature of ice-jam floods and places the forecasts in a probabilistic context in the form of flood hazard maps (probability of flood extents and depths). This novel system was tested successfully for the ice-cover breakup
period in the spring of 2018 along the Athabasca River at the Town of Fort McMurray, Canada
Contents of the short courses
Introduction
l River freeze-up (theory)
l River ice monitoring
l River ice-cover breakup, ice jamming and ice jam flooding
l Forecasting ice thicknesses (with numerical exercise)
l Modelling river ice processes
l River ice jam flood risk
l River ice jam mitigation
Introduction of Karl Lindenschmidt
Dr. Karl Lindenschmidt is now working as Associate Professor at School of Environment and Sustainability, Usask and Global Institute for Water Security. He has been engaged in surface water quality modelling, river ice processes, climate change and river morphology, flood and flood risk management and achieved excellent academic results. He is now member of International Association for Hydrological Sciences and Board member of Canadian Association of Water Resources (Saskatchewan Branch). Through his academic life, he has taught lectures at University of Saskatchewan, University of Winnipeg, Cambridge University, etc.